Department of Economics

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DOES PAKISTAN CHINA FREE TRADE AGREEMENT ENDED UP IN TRADE CREATION OR DIVERSION? AN EMPERICAL INVESTIGATION
(Library Information Services, CUI Lahore, 2015) FA13-REC-006; Lubna Uzair; LHR TP 4322; Dr. Ahmad Nawaz
This study investigates about Jacob Viner’s trade creation and diversion effect in “Pakistan-China Free Trade Agreement” Trade creation and diversion impacts are analyzed by constructing import demand equations both from China and rest of the world by using tariff concession as an independent variable in both equations. For estimation purpose “Harmonized System” data at two digit level is used for imports and tariffs from 2006 to 2012. Import demand equations have been estimated by employing panel data. Estimates of panel model suggest that Pakistan-China trade agreement is not trade diverting and imports from China increased significantly after one year of inception of agreement.
The Impact of Globalization on Foreign Direct Investment of Pakistan.
(Library Information Services, CUI Lahore, 2017) Sakina Fawad; SP14-BECO-030; Dr. Abdul Farooq Chaudhary
The role of globalization on foreign direct investment in Pakistan has shown mixed results. The present study intends to explore the relationship between globalization and foreign direct investment in Pakistan using time series date from the year 1975 – 2014. To estimate the model Autoregressive Distributive Lag Technique has been applied. Empirical results confirm the presence of positive relation between globalization and foreign direct investment in long and short run in Pakistan.
3 Economic Analysis of Agroforestry Adoption Thal region of Pakistan
(Library Information Services, CUI Lahore, 2018) MUHAMMAD MOHSAN; SP14-BECO-012; Muhammad Mohsan
This Study is conducted in the district Bhakar, a Hybrid-Arid Zone of Thal, Pakistan. This study aims to examine, whether adoption of agroforestry on dune increases the utility of farmer or not? Also we find the effect of socioeconomic factors e.g. age, education and number of family members of farmer on the adoption decision. Also we attempt to determine that how the farm-size, availability of tube well,non-farm income and the distance from the market effect the behavior to adoption of agroforestry system. We illustrate the decision of farmer adoption by using household production theory. By running Logistic regression analysis, we estimated result which shows that the age, education, distance to market and the farm size have the significant effect on adoption. On the other hand the number of adult family member, availability of tube well in dunes are not have significant effect. When the age, education of farmer and distance from the market increases,it will increase the likelihood to adopt the agroforestry technology. On the other hand as the farm-size increases, the farmers are less likely to adopt. The availability of non-agricultural monthly income is also having a positive and significant effect on adoption of agroforestry. So, these are the main factor that will lead to adoption of agroforestry system in Bhakkar.
Impact of Foreign Aid in Education Sector of Pakistan
(Library Information Services, CUI Lahore, 2018) Muhammad Ahsan; SP14-BECO-003; Ms. Zainab Naveed
The role of foreign aid in education in Pakistan has shown mixed results. The present study intends to explore the relationship between foreign aid and education sector of Pakistan using time series date from the year 1975 – 2014. To estimate the model Autoregressive Distributive Lag Technique has been applied. Empirical results confirm the presence of inverse relation between foreign aid and education in long and short run in Pakistan.
Impact of cotton dust pollution on women workers’ health and absenteeism: A cross sectional study in textile industries, Pakistan
(Library Information Services, CUI Lahore, 2018) Salman Abdullah; SP16-REC-002/; Dr. Muhammad Khan
The textile sector is one of the largest sectors of world and it contributed a lot in the GDP of every country. In Pakistan it contributed 8.5% to the overall GDP of the economy. A large fraction of working women found in the textile sector of Pakistan. The textile industries are creating a lot of pollution which contributed a lot in both air and water pollution. In textile sector women workers’ wages are not satisfied and polluted work environment leads to serious health issues which cause negative impact on workers’ health. Worker also has to bear economic cost of bad health. So, the objective of the research is to find out the impact of cotton dust pollution on women workers’ health, the research also aims to estimate the health and economic burden which is faced by workers due to bad health. The data is collected from the 18 textile spinning mills of Faisalabad and Lahore districts in March to June in 2015. Total 541 women worker selected from these mills compared to 513 women those are non-textile workers. The survey found that only 9% women are permanent employee and the average wage of women is PKR. 9857 per month which is less than the minimum wage law of Pakistan. The survey also shows that women workers bear high diseases burden than the control group. The analysis have also provides relationship between exposure to cotton dust pollution and many diseases like byssinosis, wheezing, phlegm, blood phlegm and chronic cough etc. These diseases are high among those workers who use firewood for cooking. Work days lost of worker is also estimated with work characteristics and it is found that if a worker is permanent employee and workers who work over time in both cases their absenteeism rate is high. Workers performance is also estimated and half of the worker explains that their performance at work is worse than normal. It is found that many diseases have negative impact on worker performance. The research therefore suggested that government should take some strict action ad textile mills should pay compensation because workers are bearing diseases like byssinosis. Safety culture should be promoted by giving workers training and advisory services. Because most of the diseases can be
Work Stress and Economic Productivity: A Case Study of the Textile industry in Pakistan
(Library Information Services, COMSATS University Islamabad, Lahore Campus, 2022) Imran Ishaq; SP20-REC-003; LHR TP 8689
In Pakistan the textile sector contributes nearly ¼ of the industrial value-added products and provides 40% of the total industrial workforce. Additionally, the industry has an average share of 60% in national exports. It also contributes 8.5% to the national GDP. Job-related stress among organizations has converted a significant anxiety for establishments without an immunity for the textile and apparel manufacturing, constituting a significant portion of the manufacturing industry in developing nations. The textile industry needs to improve its supply chain, increase productivity, and maximize value addition to survive in the modern, intensely competitive global market (Shah, Warraich & Kabeer, 2012). Due to multiple factors, anxiety at work is disturbingly fetching a universal public health crisis. Among the most prevalent manufacturing sectors with higher rates of stress at work are fabric mill workers facing work stress worldwide, directly affecting the firm's Productivity, and ultimately negatively impacting economic growth throughout the industrial sector. Work-related stress is a problem that could result in severe social and economic consequences that could be prevented if appropriate measures are taken (Ahmed, 2008).
How do the foreign investment, migration and global value chains (GVC’s) affect the trade liberalization in Belt and Road Initiative countries.
(2022) Faiza Akram; SP20-REC-005; LHR TP 8080; Dr. Wajiha Manzoor
The belt and road initiative is a fantastic opportunity for international trade of these by increasing their share in global trade. This study investigates the effects of foreign investment, global value chains, financial development, and migration on international trade liberalization from 1998 to 2020. The data of this study is based on belt and road initiative countries by analyzing with panel regression, Hausman test, ordinary least square, and yearly fixed models to evaluate the nexus between the variables. Moreover, Generalize Method of Movement (GMM) is performed to check the endogeneity issues in panel data. The study's findings suggested that foreign direct investment and migration enhance trade openness. At the same time, trade liberalization is associated with fewer global value chain integrations. The evidence in this study supports that political stability, domestic financial development, and gross domestic product are important factors of trade openness. This study suggests policy proposals for improving trade openness and foreign direct investment. Because of international trade, it is advised to reduce global trade barriers.
The Effects of Education and Technology on Pakistan's Shadow Economy
(Library Information Services, COMSATS University Islamabad, Lahore Campus, 2022) Ammara Sultan; FA19-REC-005; LHR TP 7901; Dr. Abdul Farooq
Pakistan is a developing country with numerous economic challenges, including corruption, inflation, poverty, unemployment, tax evasion, and shadow economy, all of which contribute to Pakistan's lower GDP. In developing economies like Pakistan, the shadow economy is a major matter of concern because it lowers the economy's growth rate. An increase in the informal economy reduces governmental revenue. With advancement of technology, we now have ICTs (information and communication technologies), cash turnover is reduced, and financial transactions are made more easier after monitoring. It is possible to contribute to economic growth by reducing the informal economy. Extra resources devoted to increase the education level can help to minimize the extent of the informal economy. In literature the study to examine the impact of technology and education on shadow economy in Pakistan's economy is inevitable. Objective of this research is to investigate the impact of technology and education on shadow economy of Pakistan covering the period of 1990-2020. The study will develop the econometric model of time series data and applied the Unit root test. I applied the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model and find the short run and Long run results
The Role of Foreign Remittances in Fostering the GDP of Pakistan
(Library Information Services, COMSATS University Islamabad, Lahore Campus, 2023) MUHAMMAD UMER; SP20-BEC-005; HINA AMIR
The study is an addition to the research to examine the contribution that worker remittances provide to Pakistan's GDP. The analysis of the study concluded the impact of workers’ remittances, inflation, unemployment rate, emigrants, and total reserves on the GDP of Pakistan. Time series data (1993 to 2021) has been gathered from different authentic sources like the World Bank and IMF. The results of the ADF unit root test indicate that emigration and inflation are stationary at levels, whereas worker remittances, the unemployment rate, and total reserves are stationary at first difference. Both a long-term and short-term link between the variables is shown by the ARDL findings. The findings demonstrate that GDP is significant impacted by each independent variable. Furthermore, the study examined that the workers’ remittances and emigrants is positively related to the GDP of Pakistan while inflation, unemployment rate, and total reserves are negatively related to the GDP of Pakistan. The findings of this study will be a great contribution to the current research for policy recommendations.
IMPACT OF BRAIN DRAIN ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF PAKISTAN
(Library Information Services, COMSATS University Islamabad, Lahore Campus, 2023) JAVERIA KASHIF; SP20-BEC-002; HINA AMIR
This study aims to find out how Pakistan's economic growth is affected by brain drain. It has used time series data of 1990-2019 over a period of 30 years. In this study the dependent variable is GDP with health expenditure, human development index, population growth and net migration rate as independent variables. The long- and short-term relationships between the variables are ascertained using the autoregressive distributed lag error correction model. ADF unit root test exhibit that the variables are stationary or not. The empirical results found that in the long run there is positive impact of HDI, health expenditures, and population expenditures on economic growth while net migration rate is having negative impact on economic growth of Pakistan. In the short run health expenditure has negative impact on economic growth while net migration rate, HDI and population growth positively affect economic growth of Pakistan.
The impact of urbanization, infrastructure development and FDI on Pakistan’s economic growth
(Library Information Services, COMSATS University Islamabad, Lahore Campus, 2023) Samar Shahid; SP20-BEC-001; Dr. Maaida Hussain Hashmi
The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of the strategic pillars of growth in Pakistan, which include foreign direct investment inflows, urbanization rate, youth dependency ratio, and investment in electricity. We used a bound test and error correction model of auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) over the period of 1999 to 2022. The findings state that these variables are negatively correlated with GDP growth rate, which means they have a significant but declining effect on the long-run economic growth of Pakistan. Based on the findings and policy recommendations, the nation can excel with the right planning on urbanization, youth development initiatives and proper foreign investments in local resources, uplifting employment, and industrial growth. It is recommended to the policymakers to analyze how and what policies to be implemented on these factors.
The Impact of Environmental Performance and Institutional Quality on Comparative Advantage of Coal Producing Countries
(Library Information Services, COMSATS University Islamabad, Lahore Campus, 2023) Mirza Khawar Baig; SP21-REC-001; LHR TP 8479; Dr. Rao Muhammad Atif
The significant role of CO2 emissions in global warming and the substantial contribution of coal as a major source of CO2 in the atmosphere necessitate a closer examination of environmental policies aimed at reducing coal consumption. Existing literature predominantly focuses on conventional factors such as price, production, demand, and reserves when explaining coal trade, but fails to consider non-conventional factors such as a country's environmental policies and quality of governance. This study aims to fill this research gap by investigating the impact of environmental policies and institutional quality on coal trade. To achieve the objective of study yearly data spanning from 2000 to 2018 for 29 coal producing countries was collected and analyzed. Year 2000 is the time when coal consumption started rising and continued till 2018. The findings of this research indicate that environmental performance and institutional quality, in addition to conventional factors, significantly impact the comparative advantage of coal-producing countries. Notably, improved environmental performance negatively affects a country's comparative advantage, while better institutional quality has a positive influence. Furthermore, while coal reserves positively impact comparative advantage, domestic demand has a negative effect. The findings of study pronounce that countries must deploy stringent environmental policies to make coal less competitive and encourage nations to shift to other renewable energy resources which will help in reducing CO2 emission in the atmosphere.
Perception of Sustainable Tourism: Analysis from Local Community Attitudes
(Library Information Services, COMSATS University Islamabad, Lahore Campus, 2023) Zoya Yaseen; FA19-REC-003; LHR TP 8477; Dr. Summaira Malik
This study aimed to explore the impact of sustainable tourism factors - economic, environmental, and sociocultural- on Murree residents with the mediating effect of quality of life and residents' support towards tourism development. In this cross-sectional study, data was collected from the local community of Murree, Pakistan. This study opted for a non-probability sampling technique using a close-ended questionnaire. The response rate of the local community was 85.7%. The present study analyzed the demographic of sample size, descriptive statistics, and correlation. Partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was used for confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), internal accuracy and validity estimations, hypothesis testing, and mediation testing. The empirical findings revealed the significant and positive mediating role of quality of life between economic impact, sociocultural impact, environmental impact, and support for tourism development. The study also indicated that the majority of the local community supports tourism, but is also most concerned about the high prices, traffic blockage, overcrowding, and making natural landscapes less available. The study emphasizes on the responsibilities of local government in the development of sustainable tourism through well-planned and targeted policies.
Analyzing the Environmental Impact of Plastic Bag Regulations: A Panel Data Study on PM2.5 Levels
(Library Information Services, COMSATS University Islamabad, Lahore Campus, 2023) Saliha Khalid; FA21-REC-002; LHR TP 8480; Dr. Rafi Amir-ud-Din
This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the ban and tax on the use of plastic bags on the air quality measured by PM2.5. Utilizing a panel dataset of 208 countries spanning 1960 to 2021, we employed Fixed Effects, Driscoll and Kraay, and GMM models to estimate the effects. In all models, our findings suggest that the ban considerably decreases the proportion of the population exposed to PM2.5 levels exceeding WHO guidelines. Meanwhile, the ban increased the proportion of the population exposed to PM2.5 levels exceeding the Interim Target-1 value, while reducing those exceeding the Interim Target-3 in the Driscoll and Kraay and GMM models. Counterintuitively, the introduction of a tax on plastic bags was shown to significantly raise both the mean annual exposure to PM2.5 in a given area and the proportion of the population exposed to PM2.5 levels exceeding all WHO targets and guideline values, as per the GMM model. Similar trends were observed in the fixed effects and Driscoll and Kraay models, albeit for a fewer number of WHO target values. In terms of combined effect, the ban was found to decrease the proportion of the population exposed to PM2.5 levels exceeding the WHO guidelines, Interim Target-1, and Target-2 values, but increased those exceeding the Interim Target-3 value. However, the tax policy resulted in increased exposure across all measures. These results underscore the intricate relationships between plastic bag policies and air pollution levels, offering important implications for policy design. Considering the significant reduction in the population's exposure to PM2.5 following the implementation of a plastic bag ban, such policies should be promoted. However, the ban's effect of increasing exposure to PM2.5 exceeding the Interim Target-1 value calls for supplementary measures to counter this unexpected consequence. The finding that taxation leads to an increase in PM2.5 exposure is surprising and may hint at complex underlying dynamics, such as an increase in the use of alternative materials with higher PM2.5 emissions. Policymakers may need to reassess the efficacy of taxation as a tool to improve air quality and explore mechanisms ix to ensure that the use of alternative materials does not lead to higher pollution levels.
Empirical Investigation of Socio-economic and Bank Specific Factors on Credit Defaults: Evidences from Pakistan
(Library Information Services, COMSATS University Islamabad, Lahore Campus, 2023) Shehzad Irshad; SP19-REC-003; LHR TP 8078; Dr.Abdul Haque
Financial institutions are backbone of the economy. A major issue for financial institutions is to investigate the factors which are responsible for credit defaults. This study investigates the impact of various socio-economic and bank specific factors along with inflation rate on loan repayment. Secondary data is used in the study. A Cross-sectional sample of 350 borrowers, which took personal loan from different commercial banks in the area of Lahore was selected. Descriptive as well as multiple regression techniques were used for analysis. The results reveal that borrowers' gender, age, marital status, educational level, occupation, and income do not affect loan repayment. However Interest rate and disbursed amount negatively affect loan repayment, whereas loan maturity period and inflation rate positively effect loan repayment.
The Differential Impact of Individual Components of Direct and Indirect Taxes on Economic Growth of Pakistan
(Library Information Services, COMSATS University Islamabad, Lahore Campus, 2025) Muhammad Adeel Khalid; CIIT/FA23-REC-001/LHR; Dr Rafi Amir-ud-Din; LHR TP 9708
Pakistan’s economy is facing a grim challenge of fiscal deficit that is characterized by widening gap between government’s tax revenue and expenditures. Taxation and economic growth have a complex relationship that has been debated among scholars. The research gap identified is that there is inconclusive evidence with respect to the differential impact of components of direct and indirect taxes on Pakistan’s GDP growth. The purpose of the study is to investigate the impact of Direct Taxes, and Indirect Taxes including Sales Tax, Custom Duty and Excise Duty on the economic growth of Pakistan. The study has tested test three hypothesis and estimation strategy is based upon Unit Root Tests and ARDL Analysis. The study has used data from State Bank of Pakistan consisting of 20 years of monthly tax revenue collection from January 2001 to June 2022. The estimation strategy used for this study includes standard time series techniques such as Unit Root test encompassing both the Phillips-Perron (PP) and Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) tests, and ARDL. The results of the study indicate that there is an insignificant relationship between tax structure and GDP growth rate of Pakistan. The reasons for this insignificant relationship include highly significant impact of some of the control variables, and many other factors beyond the tax structure of Pakistan.
Testing Title by Nadeem
(TMC, 2025) Nadeem Sohail
Digital Influence and Environmental Action: A Study on Social Media and Plastic Reduction Behavior Among Students.
(Library Information Services, COMSATS University Islamabad, Lahore Campus, 2025) Tayyeba Rasheed; CIIT/FA23-REC-002/LHR; Dr. Rao Muhammad Atif; LHR TP 10043
Plastic pollution is a pressing environmental issue, with single-use plastic products being a major contributor. Social media plays a crucial role in shaping public awareness and behavior regarding environmental concerns (Rapada et al., 2023). This research examines the impact of students’ exposure of social media information about plastic pollution on their plastic reduction behaviors, based on the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). Specifically, the role of the mediating variables (attitude, subjective norms and perceived control) play between social media exposure and the actual plastic reduction behavior. The focus is on understanding how phycological factors of TPB (Environmental attitude, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control) mediate the relationship between social media exposure and plastic reduction behavior. Primary data was collected through the use of a survey questionnaire on a sample size of 400 students at COMSATS University, Lahore Campus. An experimental design was employed to get most robust and comparative evidences, in which entire sample size was divided into four groups the social media exposure group, WhatsApp exposure group, and the control group. The measurement model is evaluated and the hypothesized direct and indirect relationships among latent construct are tested by using Smart PLS 4. In the second stage of the research, the awareness content and interventions, as posters showing the alarming impact of plastic pollution on human health and the ecosystem, were shared through Facebook, WhatsApp, and structured lectures, while the control group did not receive any intervention. This multi-channel process made it possible to scrutinize the effectiveness of awareness-building Media campaigns more properly in various communication channels. Moreover, t-tests for paired samples were applied in order to see how the students had changed their plastic use before and after the interventions. It thus provided an excellent means of comparison for showing how exposure through social media, WhatsApp, and lectures significantly alter the plastic consumption level of students over time. Results of SEM analysis indicate that the overall positive impact of social Media exposure on plastic reduction behavior (Pre_SME → Pre_PRB= 0.472, p =0.000), emerging strongest predictor than the indirect effect via TPB constructs. There was an also substantial influence of social media exposure on phycological factors; environmental attitudes (Pre_SME→ Pre_PRB= 0.725, p < 0.001) and descriptive norms (Pre_SME → Pre_DN = 0.709, p < 0.001), highlighting its potent ability to influence component of TPB societal expectations and motivational components, although it did not directly predict the behavior. Conversely, the impact of perceived behavioral control on the behavior was prominent in the lecture exposure group, highlighting the significance of well- structured environments for the development of capability. The WhatsApp exposure group demonstrate most theoretical consistent results aligning with TPB model, as it accounted for the predictive role of subjective norms and perceived behavioral control, along with the direct effect of exposure on plastic reduction behavior. Perceived behavioral control (Pre_PBC → Pre_PRB = 0.275, p = 0.011) and subjective norms (Pre_DN→ Pre_PRB = 0.305, p = 0.032) both phycological factor emerge as significant predictor of plastic reduction behavior in WhatsApp exposure group. These are further supported by the result from the paired-samples t-tests 2.79, t (99) = 15.31, p < 0.001. indicating that the social media group had the highest decrease in plastic consumption pattern, followed by the WhatsApp and lecture exposure groups, while the control group demonstrated no statistical change. Frequency analyses also revealed consistent shifts from high to low weekly plastic consumption in all intervention groups, with the substantial decreases in the social media exposure group. In summary, the congruence of findings underlines that awareness campaigns through different medium are particularly effective in developing plastic reduction behavior and highlighting the importance of using digital means of communication in developing environmental conscious and sustainable behavior.