Department of Statistics

In the recent years climate change is the hot topic of research. Climate change can have severe effect on the environment. The drought is an important factor of the climate. If a drought occur in some area it will affect the agriculture, water resources and other important factors of the country. In this study, the impact of drought in different districts of Punjab, Pakistan was studied using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI). The SPI is applied on the rain data and the SAI was applied on the temperature data. The data was collected from Pakistan Metrological Department. At first, we fit the data on Length Biased Exponential Distribution and then we applied Standardized Precipitation Index on the rain data received from Pakistan Meteorological Department from 1993 to 2022. We also computed SPI using 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month moving average of the original data. We conducted spatial and temporal analysis using SPI and for the visual representation we also plot maps of the past five years for better understanding of the drought. Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI) is a useful tool to measure and monitor deviations from normal conditions in terms of temperature or other relevant variables associated with drought. We used temperature to better explain the drought impact in Pakistan. After applying SAI, we find out that temperate of the data is above average which means there is drought impact in different districts of Pakistan. The results show the clear drought pattern in different districts of Pakistan. We ignore the 0 and negative values of rain data before fitting the Length Biased Exponential Distribution as it is undefined for these values and then we compute the results. The graphs show that after taking moving average the drought patterns decrease in districts and also few years does not show any drought pattern.

Department of Statistics

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