Browsing by Author "CIIT/SP24-RMT-017/LHR"

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Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of Pertussis Cough
(Library Information Services, COMSATS University Islamabad, Lahore Campus, 2025) Syed Shan-E- Ahmad; CIIT/SP24-RMT-017/LHR; Dr. Syed Tahir Raza Rizvi; LHR TP 10078
Mathematical modeling of dynamical systems often uses ordinary differential equations to represent how key variables evolve over time. Such models support prediction, inter-pretation, and decision-making in biology, engineering, economics, and environmental science by linking mechanisms to observable outcomes. Stability analysis is central in this setting: it determines whether equilibria persist under perturbations and clarifies long-term behavior, resilience, and the potential impact of interventions. We apply these tools to a pertussis (whooping cough) model with five compartments: susceptible, latent-immunity, exposed, infectious, and recovered. The formulation in-corporates waning vaccine-induced immunity, reinfection, and disease-induced mortal-ity, and it is proven to be positive, bounded, and forward invariant. The basic repro-duction number Ro is derived via the next-generation matrix method; sensitivity analy-sis shows transmission, progression to infectivity, recovery, and vaccination rates most strongly influence persistence. Local and global stability of the disease-free and endem-ic equilibria are established. A nonstandard finite difference scheme preserves quali-tative dynamics and supports simulations. Numerical experiments confirm the analy-sis and illustrate how parameters shape outbreak magnitude and duration. Finally, an integral sliding mode control acting on vaccination robustly suppresses exposure and infection and can drive elimination under parameter uncertainty and disturbances. Keywords: Mathematical modeling; pertussis; compartmental model; Vaccination; wan-ing immunity; basic reproduction number Ro; sensitivity analysis