Abstract:
This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the ban and tax on
the use of plastic bags on the air quality measured by PM2.5. Utilizing a panel dataset
of 208 countries spanning 1960 to 2021, we employed Fixed Effects, Driscoll and
Kraay, and GMM models to estimate the effects. In all models, our findings suggest that
the ban considerably decreases the proportion of the population exposed to PM2.5
levels exceeding WHO guidelines. Meanwhile, the ban increased the proportion of the
population exposed to PM2.5 levels exceeding the Interim Target-1 value, while
reducing those exceeding the Interim Target-3 in the Driscoll and Kraay and GMM
models.
Counterintuitively, the introduction of a tax on plastic bags was shown to
significantly raise both the mean annual exposure to PM2.5 in a given area and the
proportion of the population exposed to PM2.5 levels exceeding all WHO targets and
guideline values, as per the GMM model. Similar trends were observed in the fixed
effects and Driscoll and Kraay models, albeit for a fewer number of WHO target values.
In terms of combined effect, the ban was found to decrease the proportion of the
population exposed to PM2.5 levels exceeding the WHO guidelines, Interim Target-1,
and Target-2 values, but increased those exceeding the Interim Target-3 value.
However, the tax policy resulted in increased exposure across all measures. These
results underscore the intricate relationships between plastic bag policies and air
pollution levels, offering important implications for policy design.
Considering the significant reduction in the population's exposure to PM2.5
following the implementation of a plastic bag ban, such policies should be promoted.
However, the ban's effect of increasing exposure to PM2.5 exceeding the Interim
Target-1 value calls for supplementary measures to counter this unexpected
consequence. The finding that taxation leads to an increase in PM2.5 exposure is
surprising and may hint at complex underlying dynamics, such as an increase in the use
of alternative materials with higher PM2.5 emissions. Policymakers may need to
reassess the efficacy of taxation as a tool to improve air quality and explore mechanisms
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to ensure that the use of alternative materials does not lead to higher pollution levels.
